Assessment Task 2 - Developing a Self Study Program

36200 Argument, Evidence and Intuition

Assessment Task 2 - Developing a Self Study Program

Anthony Hamilton

Student No.  10168577

The Report

Area of interest – Gambling Horse Racing

The challenge can Mathematics as predict the result of a horse racing event using Pythagorean equation and if there is any difference in using Euclidean metrics

Goals

The aim of this mathematical calculation id to discover or document the come of a number of race events to establish if a mathematical formula can predict the outcome of a horse racing event

The equation would take an existing data which is readily available such as a horse’s previous form along with the odds at publication  

The equation would be for a number of specific types of race that is races where horse have qualified or won a least one race to enter

Pythagorean equation

To begin we test two variables Odds of Horse winning against the sum of the horses previous form

Testing these results using Pythagorean Theory

To Quote Wikipedia

“In mathematics, the Pythagorean theorem, also known as Pythagoras's theorem, is a relation in Euclidean geometry among the three sides of a right triangle. It states that the square of the hypotenuse (the side opposite the right angle) is equal to the sum of the squares of the other two sides. The theorem can be written as an equation relating the lengths of the sides a, b and c, often called the "Pythagorean equation”

For Race Results and Calculations Appendix A

Euclidean metrics

In mathematics, the Euclidean metric is the "ordinary" distance between two points in Euclidean space. In terms of space we plan to plot the Odds of a horse winning at time of publication against the Sum of the Horses previous form and against the odds 5 mins before the race.

For Race Results and Calculations Appendix B

In comparing the different forms of mathematical calculations Euclidean metric is more likely to offer a more accurate result as it has the option to take into account the more of the variables in to account.

Additional variable that could be taken into account would be the horse speed or average velocity in its last race and or average speed or velocity over the last 600 metres.

Now have said that we are also assuming that that all of these values are equal in terms of scale

In terms of predictability we were able to predict one winner in eight races having said that if a gambler had picked the favourites in each race they would of have the same results.

In terms of a profitable exercise by placing a bet of $2 on a place for each selection a punter would of lose $6 in across eight races