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Thursday, 29 January 2015
Assessment Task 3 - A Contentious Issue
36200
Argument, Evidence and Intuition
Assessment
Task 3 -
A Contentious
Issue
Anthony
Hamilton
Student
No. 10168577
The Presentation / Report can be found at
The Reflection can be found on the last page
Should Australia increase the rate of the GST ?
Over recent years Australia’s government expenditure has
been greater than its revenue, well since 2008
Figures from the ABS
In the recent figures published by ABS at the end of the
September taxation revenue decreased 15.1% to $99,763m from
$117,469m in the June quarter 2014. Furthermore, general government sector
expenses exceeded revenue resulting in a Government Finance Statistics net
operating balance of –$19,288m. or in other words we are spending more than
what we are earning.
Why has expenditure increased? Well spending has increased just
as it has historically and yet revenue has also increased although not kept
pace with expenditure. The challenge we face is that rate of spending has accelerated
past the revenue. Therefore suggesting that we don’t have a spending problem we
have a revenue problem. Even though the actual
revenue figure have actually increased since 2006
Is there a case for
Australians paying higher taxes, OECD report suggests that Australia had
a relatively low level of indirect taxes as a percentage of the gross domestic
product — 7 per cent compared to the average of 12 per cent.
OECD Report – Revenue Statistics 2014 - Australia
GST offers unifying benefits where weaker state can be supported by other stronger states economically speaking. So each state has the opportunity to offer same government services in terms of budgetary spending when it comes to health and education.
Furthermore it also removes tax variations between states along with have one source of collection offers cost savings rather than having 6 states collecting taxes at differing rates.
Therefore Australians are comfortable about the idea of a GST yet one who imagine that they are less comfortable about the idea of increasing the rate of the GST
Is the answer a higher GST or growing the pie? In terms of changing the rate at which revenue is increasing a simple solution would be to increase the rate of GST. This Australia would be less likely to embrace this option without additional trade-offs or for some incentive to change.
Peter Reith writing for the Sydney Morning Herald suggests that “Broadening the base on food might raise $6 billion to $7 billion, and of that about $2 billion might be given back in compensation”
Who should pay more If businesses where to pay more in terms
of taxes , would that mean they are less like to invest in training new
employees and investing in the youth of future? Current youth unemployment is
around 17% in some regions across Australia. By directly increasing tax would certainly
affect business activity.
Would the tax payers of Australia be happy to pay more if so
which sector could higher tax payers offer more or would high tax payers be
encouraged to avoid paying more tax? Just like the big multinationals tax
minimising.
One thing is clear it that both Australians and Australian
business would like to see the big
multinational pay more in tax therefore reducing the amount consumers and
business need to pay.
Heath Aston writing for the Sydney morning herald suggests “Apple has shifted an estimated $8.9 billion in untaxed profits
from its Australian operations to a tax haven structure in Ireland in the past
decade” basically robbing Australia tax payers.
Have better management of our tax collection
processes offers an opportunity of increase the revenue growth rate, yet tax avoidance
of big multinationals is not a new problem it has been going on for years.
In a recent OECD Report suggests that Australia’s Structure
of Tax Receipts receive higher revenues from taxes on personal income, corporate
income and property. Yet a lower proportion of revenues from taxes on goods and
services. Furthermore we receive no Revenue from social security contributors,
but Australia has higher revenues for payroll taxes compared to OECD as a whole
Historically Australia’s tax against GDP has been relatively
low
Is the slow growth rate in Revenue a cyclic issue or is it a
permanent issue? Falling commodity prices suggest less revenue for the
Australia Government or less money floating through the economy.
Falling oil prices could hurt the Australian economy as
Australia is an energy producer, with coal and natural gas being in the top
five commodities exported
A recent article in the economist suggested the basis for
falling oil prices is that there is less demand for oil and the energy sector
as the United States of America is producing more oil from shale gas and
drilling of more wells “ perhaps 20,000 new wells since 2010”
Looking at Australian Treasury figures they suggest that tax
to GDP ratio is cyclic relationship that is predicted to recover in coming years
this would make sense to some extent, with commodity prices as the world
emerges out of the Global economic crises or returns to historical rates of
growth.
Now if this is not the case and the reduction in the revenue
growth is one of a permeant nature we may need to review our longer tem
spending commitments better Management of fund and possibly reducing super tax
concessions.
In concluding should Australia increase the rate of the GST or should we
be boarding the base of the GST. Do Australians need to pay more tax as our contributions
in comparison to other countries? Do we need to change anything and hope that
our revenue growth will return as the world economy returns to higher rates growth?
References
Australian Bureau of Statistics: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5519.0.55.001
The Economist: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21635472-economics-oil-have-changed-some-businesses-will-go-bust-market-will-be
The Sydney Morning Herald: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-confirms-tax-office-crackdown-on-multinational-tax-robbers-20141209-1234gr.html
OECD Report – Revenue Statistics 2014 - Australia
http://www.oecd.org/ctp/consumption/revenue-statistics-and-consumption-tax-trends-2014-australia.pdf
COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA: http://www.gstdistributionreview.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=home.htm
Tuesday, 27 January 2015
Assessment Task 2 - Developing a Self Study Program
36200
Argument, Evidence and Intuition
Assessment
Task 2 - Developing a Self Study Program
Anthony
Hamilton
Student
No. 10168577
The Report
Area of interest – Gambling Horse Racing
The challenge can Mathematics as predict the result of a
horse racing event using Pythagorean
equation and if there is any difference in using Euclidean metrics
Goals
The aim of this mathematical calculation id to discover or
document the come of a number of race events to establish if a mathematical formula
can predict the outcome of a horse racing event
The equation would take an existing data which is readily available
such as a horse’s previous form along with the odds at publication
The equation would be for a number of specific types of race
that is races where horse have qualified or won a least one race to enter
Pythagorean
equation
To begin we test two variables Odds of Horse winning against
the sum of the horses previous form
Testing these results using Pythagorean Theory
To Quote Wikipedia
“In mathematics, the Pythagorean
theorem, also known as Pythagoras's theorem, is a relation in Euclidean
geometry among the three sides of a right triangle. It states that the square
of the hypotenuse (the side opposite the right angle) is equal to the sum of
the squares of the other two sides. The theorem can be written as an equation
relating the lengths of the sides a, b and c, often called the "Pythagorean
equation”
Euclidean metrics
In mathematics, the Euclidean metric is the
"ordinary" distance between two points in Euclidean space. In terms
of space we plan to plot the Odds of a horse winning at time of publication against
the Sum of the Horses previous form and against the odds 5 mins before the
race.
For Race Results and Calculations Appendix B
In comparing the different forms of mathematical
calculations Euclidean metric is more likely to offer a more accurate result as
it has the option to take into account the more of the variables in to account.
Additional variable that could be taken into account would
be the horse speed or average velocity in its last race and or average speed or
velocity over the last 600 metres.
Now have said that we are also assuming that that all of
these values are equal in terms of scale
In terms of predictability we were able to predict one winner
in eight races having said that if a gambler had picked the favourites in each
race they would of have the same results.
In terms of a profitable exercise by placing a bet of $2 on
a place for each selection a punter would of lose $6 in across eight races
Tuesday, 20 January 2015
Assessment Task 1 - The Quantified Self
36200
Argument, Evidence and Intuition
Assessment
Task 1 - The Quantified Self
Anthony
Hamilton
Student
No. 10168577
The Presentation / Report can be found at
The Reflection can be found on the next page
The Report
Introduction
As Technology continues to evolve handheld devices offer a cost effect way of recording large amounts of data on the human being. The Quantified self is about tracking one's person it offer an opportunity to set goals and live a more healthy life. This report is based on my personal Kilojoule counting.
Method
To record the number of kilojoules consumed on Smart phone and or iPad through my daily activities. My Fitness Pal has been downloaded and installed from www.myfitnesspal.com data has been record from a 2 week period ending on January 21st 2015.
Foods consumed have been recorded by selection from the My Fitness Pal data based or entered manually.
Kilojoules Consumed
Counting Kilojoules has be an informative and yet motivating process to meet a goal of consuming 10,544 Kilojoules per day, this was set for a person of my size to lose weight in a healthy fashion with a target weight of 90Kgs
One of the benefits to have a data base of foods and there kilojoules it offers one a chance to look at my regular daily foods and compare them to the My Fitness Pal food data base. It has offered an on formed choice what in terms of potential Kilojoules consumption prior to consumption.
On the 18th of January I was feeling ill one could suggest it was due to that amount of alcohol intake from the previous evening where one did not wish to get out of bed on the Sunday. Although from past experience that amount of alcohol consumed was not significant it could have been a build-up of lack of sleep burning the candle at both ends.
Disscussion
Is there a difference in the average kilojoules intake between countries and cultures?
There are some many differences between our countries particulary when it comes to what we eat and or what we have available to eat
In comparing kilojoule intake from a snap shot of a number of countries across the globe it seem that the Asian countries such as Japan and China have a lower Kilojoule intake on average.
Generally speaking this may stem from their rice based diet or cultural differences if one could call marketing of fast foods a cultural difference in comparison to western countries.
Does the amount of kilojouces we consume on a daily basis affect our health in term of our height and our size or how much we grow?
In comparing the average daily kilojoule intake to the average height there seems to be no reliable relationship. As Italians on average are generally shorter than the Asian countries yet have a higher kilojoule intake.
Can the amount of kilojoules consumed on a daily basis affect our life expectancy?
China rules out any relationship between life expectancy and the amount of kilojoules a citizen consumes on a daily on average
Personal - Weight Gain Weight Loss
In terms of my personal weight gain / loss for the tracked period, there was little variation in the initial stages yet this may be down the scale used.
Initially I used the scales at home yet in the second week of data recording the scales at the local gym offered higher degree accuracy or offer a high degree of variation.
Conclusion
On the grand scale comparing the data for country to country these seems to little evidence to show any consist relationship between the daily kilojoule consumption and any of the metrics we measured. This is not to say that the daily kilojoule consumption may be a component that part of the equation
References
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations - http://www.fao.org/about/en/
United Nations Department of Economic
and Social Affairs - http://esa.un.org/
Wikipedia.org - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_height
Reflection
In reflecting on the quantified self-exercise is that it is easy to make changes to your life style if you have all of the data. My Quantified self-assessment was based initially on counting Kilojoules and with the used of My Fitness Pal it has made the task somewhat effortless to calumniate data.
Having said that remember to record the data was the challenge in get a high degree of accuracy. Personally I have more confidence in the accuracy of data when it is entered on a daily bases.
Recording the data or matching the foods consumed with My Fitness Pal data base was challenging at first yet and after installing the application on a hand held device scanning a foods bar code removed all doubt in terms of matching the food consumed.
Discovering that the average kilojoules consumes by an Australian was in the vicinity of 13K Kilojoules per day and over the past 14 day I was yet to exceed 12K Kilojoules was quite a relief, although it made one feel that they could indulge a little bit more. That also assumes that the average Australian consuming 13K Kilojoules in not increasing their body weight.
One unexpected outcome was that I expand or extended my exercise routine, one could suggest that this was due to becoming more aware of one ’s self or the choices one could make. Moreover I now have a goal to work towards, where previously there was no or little self-management or idea of what direction to take.
Having a data base of foods including nutrients along with historical data offers me a more informed choice in terms of daily food selection and as a result better health management.
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